Gold surged past $5,500/oz in January before crashing below $4,000/oz in June – and the World Gold Council says the second half could go either way.

Gold experienced one of its most turbulent six-month periods on record in the first half of 2026, soaring to 12 all-time highs before plunging nearly 30% from its peak, according to the World Gold Council’s ‘Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2026: Point break’ report released on Wednesday.

The metal briefly crossed above $5,500/oz intraday in late January amid heightened geopolitical tensions, before falling towards – and briefly dipping below – $4,000/oz in late June. The sharp swing push realised volatility above 50% at its peak, though it has since eased below 30% – still well above the 20-year average of 17%.

Despite the correction, gold remains among the top-performing assets over the past 12 months, down roughly 7% year-to-date.

According to the World Gold Council’s Gold Return Attribution Model, heightened geopolitical tensions – led by the US-Iran conflict – were the biggest driver of gold’s first-half performance, alongside momentum from investor positioning and profit-taking.

“The gold market has made something clear this year: it is a genuinely global asset,” said Juan Carlos Artigas, the World Gold Council’s Regional CEO for the Americas and Global Head of Research.

“Rates matter, and we expect them to be a key variable in the second half. But gold’s performance is not driven by a single factor,” Artigas said.

Most of gold’s price action occurred during Asian and US trading hours, underscoring the growing influence of Asian investors in global price discovery.

The council expects gold to trade within about 5% of $4,100/oz through year-end if current macroeconomic conditions hold. Current pricing assumes at least one US Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, likely by October, alongside parallel tightening from the Bank of England, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank, with US inflation peaking near 3.9% in the second quarter.

But the report warns that the stage is set for a possible breakout. On the upside, a worsening economy, a renewed geopolitical shock, a shift towards lower interest-rate expectations, or a wave of dip buying could lift gold back towards $4,500/oz or above.

“In this context, our macro-based scenario analysis suggests that gold could resume its upward trend around US$4,500/oz, but only a strong, clear signal may push it sustainably towards US$5,000/oz,” the authors wrote.

Conversely, resilient growth, rising yields and calmer markets could see gold slip further – though the council notes that a fall of more than 10% from current levels has historically attracted bargain-hunting demand from long-term buyers across multiple geographies.

Enduring central bank demand and policy shifts in key markets like India – where an import duty increase from 6% to 15% is expected to reduce jewellery, bar and coin consumption by 50–60 tonnes – remain additional wildcards that could subtly influence gold’s path in the second half.

“Gold has come under pressure near US$4,000/oz this year and previously rebounded, supported by organic demand from long-term buyers across multiple geographies,” Artigas said. “That structural demand from central banks, institutional investors, and consumers worldwide is what underpins gold’s resilience.”