South Africa’s mining sector recorded modest growth in 2025, with strong commodity prices for gold, platinum group metals, chrome and manganese helping to offset constrained production volumes caused by domestic cost pressures, logistics underperformance and regulatory uncertainty, according to the Minerals Council South Africa’s latest Facts and Figures 2025 report released on October 16, 2026.

Mining accounted for 6.2% of nominal GDP, or R477.1-billion, in 2025, while contributing 4.8%, or R205.5-billion, to total GDP in real terms. Total primary sales rose 7.3% to R861.1-billion, up from R802.7-billion the previous year.

The South African economy grew by 1.1% in 2025, while the mining industry expanded marginally by 0.2%.

Early 2026 indicators showed signs of recovery, with mining production in the first half of the year growing by 2.2% year-on-year, driven by PGMs, chrome, manganese and gold. Production of coal, diamonds and iron ore declined in the first five months of the year.

Despite weaker monthly performances in May and June, cumulative production over the first five months remained above the level recorded during the corresponding period last year. Mineral sales increased by R124-billion between January and June 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, suggesting stronger commodity prices helped support revenue performance even as production output weakened.

Minerals Council CEO Mzila Mthenjane acknowledged the uncertain global operating environment, citing the impacts of the war in Ukraine and the Middle East conflict. He noted that demand for minerals essential to electrification, energy security, advanced manufacturing, AI, digital infrastructure and defence applications continues to accelerate.

“Mineral wealth alone does not guarantee investment and is not an entitlement to growth. Countries compete for capital and investors require certainty, stability, and confidence in the operating environment. Capital investment is not charitable giving. Both investment and growth are earned,” Mthenjane said.

The Minerals Council expects mining growth of 1% to 2.5% in 2026, assuming improved rail performance, stable electricity supply, continued support from gold, chrome and manganese prices, and no severe escalation in fuel or logistics costs.

The outlook depends on the pace of Transnet’s rail recovery, electricity tariff moderation, stable labour relations and whether global demand from China, India, the US and the UAE remains supportive.

“The mining industry’s outlook for 2026 could be described as cautiously positive, with the on-and-off conflict between the US and Iran being the elephant in the room,” the council said.

The Middle East conflict has affected fuel prices, a major input in mining through diesel used in opencast operations, haulage, on-mine transport, generators and explosives supply chains. Higher fuel prices affect mines directly through operating costs and indirectly through logistics, food, labour, transport and imported capital equipment.

However, the impact is not entirely negative. Higher geopolitical risk has supported gold and, at times, PGMs. Gold producers may benefit from higher prices, while coal, iron ore, chrome and manganese producers face margin compression if freight and diesel costs rise faster than export prices.

Deep-level gold and PGM mines still face rising electricity, labour and safety-related costs, which limit the benefit of higher prices.

· Nominal GDP contribution (2025): R477.1-billion (6.2%)

· Real GDP contribution (2025): R205.5-billion (4.8%)

· Total primary sales (2025): R861.1-billion, up 7.3% from R802.7-billion in 2024

· Economy growth (2025): 1.1%

· Mining growth (2025): 0.2%

· H1 2026 mining production growth: 2.2% year-on-year

· Mineral sales increase (Jan-Jun 2026 vs 2025): R124-billion

· 2026 growth forecast: 1% to 2.5%