The African Development Bank (AfDB) says the continent could unlock more than $469 billion in additional revenue every year without raising a single tax rate, a sum that exceeds Africa’s estimated annual development financing gap and could significantly reduce dependence on foreign borrowing and aid.

The figure comes at a critical moment. African governments are facing mounting fiscal pressure from rising debt repayments, weakening aid flows and a more difficult global financing environment.

According to S&P Global Ratings, the continent’s external debt repayments are expected to exceed $90 billion this year, while development institutions estimate Africa’s annual financing gap at around $400 billion. Yet the AfDB believes a substantial share of the solution already exists within the continent.

“We see that by improving tax administration through digitisation and other reforms, just adopting best practices, the continent can mobilise more than $469 billion extra without increasing tax rates,” AfDB Chief Economist Kevin Urama said. “It is simply about improving efficiency and strengthening compliance.”

The $469 billion estimate is part of the AfDB’s broader assessment that Africa could unlock as much as $1.43 trillion in additional annual financing through better resource mobilisation, stronger institutions, improved spending efficiency and deeper financial markets.

In other words, the challenge is not only about collecting more taxes. The bank argues that African countries lose enormous resources through weak tax administration, inefficient public spending, fragmented financial systems and governance shortcomings. Nearly $469 billion in potential domestic revenue remains untapped each year because of weaknesses in tax collection, compliance and policy design.

The amount is significant when placed alongside other major financial flows into Africa. It is more than four times the roughly $107 billion generated by Africa’s banking industry in 2025 and is large enough to rival some of the continent’s biggest external financing sources.

Urama argued that tax collection in Africa is also a trust issue. Across many African countries, households and businesses routinely provide services that governments are expected to deliver, including electricity, water supply, security and, in some cases, road maintenance. As a result, many taxpayers see little value in paying more into public coffers.

Urama said governments could improve compliance by strengthening transparency, improving public service delivery and demonstrating that public funds are being managed effectively. The AfDB has repeatedly argued that citizens are more willing to pay taxes when they see visible improvements in healthcare, education, infrastructure and other essential services.

The timing of the AfDB’s message is notable. The continent’s economic outlook has become more challenging as global uncertainty weighs on investment flows and donor support. The bank recently warned that Africa’s growth outlook faces increasing risks from geopolitical tensions, weaker foreign investment and reduced development assistance.

Rather than relying solely on external funding, the AfDB is pushing African governments to look inward. Digitised tax systems, integrated taxpayer databases, broader tax bases and simplified compliance procedures are among the reforms the bank believes could help governments capture revenue that is currently slipping through the cracks.

For a continent searching for money to fund infrastructure, create jobs and manage rising debt obligations, the AfDB’s message is simple: Africa’s next great resource boom may not come from oil wells, gold mines or critical minerals. It may come from collecting the revenue that is already owed.