Nigeria's oil trade dynamics shifted dramatically in 2025, with crude imports linked to the Dangote Refinery reaching $3.74 billion—an unexpected development for a nation traditionally known for exporting crude rather than importing it.

This data comes from the latest Balance of Payments report released by the Central Bank of Nigeria, which identified the refinery's crude acquisitions as a major factor shaping the country's current account position.

According to the report, Nigeria recorded a current account surplus of $14.04 billion in 2025. While this represents a decline from the $19.03 billion surplus posted in 2024, it remains a substantial improvement compared to the $6.42 billion recorded in 2023.

The year-on-year reduction reflects shifting oil trading patterns, particularly the importation of crude for domestic processing at the world's largest single-train refinery.

Export figures illustrate this transition clearly. Crude oil shipments fell to $31.54 billion in 2025, down 14 percent from $36.85 billion in 2024.

Despite this decline, Nigeria's goods account improved, posting a surplus of $14.51 billion—up from $13.17 billion in 2024.

According to The Punch, this surge was driven primarily by activities at the Dangote refinery and improved performance in other export sectors.

The export of refined petroleum products emerged as a major highlight, generating $5.85 billion over the year. Increased gas exports also contributed to the strengthening trade position.

Meanwhile, the refinery's operations appear to be reshaping Nigeria's import profile. With greater availability of locally refined fuel, the country's dependence on imported petroleum products has fallen sharply.

Fuel imports dropped dramatically to $10 billion in 2025, down from $14.06 billion the previous year—a nearly 29 percent decrease.

However, this gain was partially offset by a rise in non-oil imports, which climbed to $29.24 billion from $25.74 billion in 2024, signalling sustained demand for foreign goods.

The central bank's report also highlighted increased investment outflows, as Nigerians expanded their holdings in both direct and portfolio investments abroad over the past year.

Overall, Nigeria's balance of payments remained favourable, recording a surplus of $4.23 billion in 2025.

Though lower than the $6.83 billion reported in 2024, it reflects a relatively stable external position.

The country's external reserves expanded as well, reaching $45.75 billion by December 2025—a 13.83 percent year-on-year gain supported by increased inflows and improved external buffers.