Kumba Iron Ore expects half-year profits to tumble by as much as 35% after the heaviest rainfall in decades pummelled its Northern Cape operations and a stronger rand eroded export earnings.

The miner told shareholders on Tuesday that earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) for the six months to June 30 would land between R10-million and R11-million — a decline of 30% to 35% compared with the first half of 2025.

Headline earnings per share are projected to fall 39% to 43% year-on-year, to between R12.68 and R13.61. In the same period last year, the company reported HEPS of R22.26.

"The heavy rains we experienced in the Northern Cape were the most significant in many decades, and they had a direct impact on our mining operations," said Kumba spokesperson. "At Sishen mine, we managed to offset some of the impact through strong operational performance, but at Kolomela mine, we had to implement planned reductions."

Production for the six-month period dropped 3% year-on-year, while sales fell 1%, largely due to State-owned freight rail company Transnet's ten-day planned maintenance in May.

The rand strengthened 11% against the US dollar during the period, compounding pressure on the company's dollar-denominated iron-ore earnings. Combined with a marginally lower average realised free-on-board export price, these factors account for approximately 96% of the Ebitda movement, Kumba said.

"Transnet's maintenance was a planned intervention, but it inevitably affected our ability to move product to port," the spokesperson said. "We did receive a one-off payment from Transnet related to logistics performance in the period, which partially offset the impact."

Basic earnings for the period are expected to be between R3.9-million and R4.2-million, a decline of 40% to 44% from the comparative period. Basic earnings per share are projected at R12.41 to R13.31, compared with R22.17 in the first half of 2025.

Kumba will publish its full production and sales report on July 23, with financial results due on July 28.

"The fundamentals of our business remain resilient despite these headwinds," the spokesperson said. "We have managed production challenges at Sishen effectively, and we continue to work closely with Transnet on improving logistics reliability going forward."