Exports from Guinea’s massive Simandou iron ore project surged in May, marking a significant milestone in the mine’s ramp-up and reinforcing expectations that it could reshape the global iron ore market.

According to ship-tracking data from Kpler, shipments from Simandou’s Morebaya port reached 2.2 million tonnes in May, sharply up from the previous record of 1.3 million tonnes in April.

The increase follows a slower start to the year, when monthly exports remained below 600,000 tonnes, according to Bloomberg.

The Simandou project, often described as one of the world’s most important new mining developments, is expected to export up to 120 million tonnes of high-grade iron ore annually once fully operational.

The project is divided between two consortia: the China-Singapore-backed Baowu Winning Consortium Simandou (BWCS) and Simfer, a joint venture between Rio Tinto and China’s Chinalco.

The mine has been dubbed the “Pilbara Killer” because of concerns that its high-grade ore could challenge supplies from Australia’s Pilbara region, the world’s largest iron ore-producing hub.

However, Simandou’s development has faced several setbacks, including logistics bottlenecks, a fatal workplace incident in February, and labour strikes at BWCS operations in May.

Industry analysts say the latest export surge suggests operational improvements are beginning to take effect. Improved loading efficiency at Morebaya port and greater coordination between the two operating consortiums have helped accelerate shipments.

Forecasts suggest exports could continue rising sharply, reaching as much as 8 million tonnes in the third quarter and 12 million tonnes in the final quarter of the year. Rio Tinto has previously guided that full production capacity could be achieved within 30 months, though some analysts expect a longer timeline.

The increase comes at a delicate moment for global iron ore markets, as China’s steel demand remains under pressure and inventories stay elevated. Most of Simandou’s exports have so far been shipped to China. Still, analysts say it remains unclear whether the additional high-grade ore is being absorbed by demand or adding to an already well-supplied market.