Nigeria may be one of the clearest examples of why Africa needs to rethink the way it approaches mineral investment, according to N.E. Bassey, an energy and mining executive with 14 years of experience across Africa's natural resources sectors.

Bassey made the case at the 2026 Oxford Mergers & Acquisitions Symposium, organised by the Institute for Mergers, Acquisitions and Alliances (IMAA), Jesus Entrepreneur Network, Jesus College, Oxford, and the Polsky Center for Entrepreneurship and Innovation, University of Chicago. His presentation, "Rethinking M&A in Africa's Extractive Industries: Unlocking Mineral Value in Emerging Markets," examined how mergers, acquisitions and strategic partnerships can be used not simply to acquire mineral assets, but to build integrated value chains and unlock greater economic value across Africa's extractive industries.

The Gap Between Potential and Value

In April 2024, Minister of Solid Minerals Development Dr. Dele Alake said preliminary work by GeoScan, a German firm working with the Nigerian government, had estimated approximately $750 billion worth of minerals embedded underground in Nigeria. The minister described the figure as a conservative preliminary estimate.

But Bassey argues that an estimate of mineral resources in the ground does not automatically translate into commercially recoverable reserves, investment returns or economic output. "Geological potential becomes economic value only when it can be developed commercially, supported by infrastructure, financed, processed and connected to markets," he said. "That is where Nigeria's central challenge lies."

National data require careful interpretation. In 2024, the broader Mining and Quarrying sector accounted for about 6.9 per cent of Nigeria's GDP. However, that classification includes crude petroleum and natural gas, coal, metal ores, quarrying and other mining activities. In the fourth quarter of 2024, crude petroleum and natural gas accounted for approximately 80.6 per cent of the sector. The headline figure should not be interpreted as the contribution of Nigeria's solid-minerals industry alone.

Yet Nigeria already produces a range of minerals. In 2024, the United States Geological Survey estimated that Nigeria was the world's second-largest producer of tantalum, accounting for approximately 16 per cent of global production.

"The strategic question is therefore not simply whether Nigeria has minerals," Bassey said. "It is how Nigeria can convert mineral potential into competitive industries, productive assets, jobs, government revenue and sustainable economic value."

The M&A Opportunity

Bassey argues that mergers and acquisitions can play a more strategic role in addressing the fragmentation of Nigeria's mining landscape, which spans exploration licences, producing mines, processing facilities, logistics networks, infrastructure providers, technical capabilities and market access.

"The challenge is often not the absence of resources, but insufficient scale, integration and capital across the value chain," he said. "M&A can help address that fragmentation."

Rather than viewing an acquisition simply as the purchase of a mineral deposit or mining licence, investors can assess how complementary assets and capabilities can be brought together to create a larger industrial platform. A company with mineral resources may benefit from combining with a processing business. A producer may create additional value by integrating logistics or securing long-term market access. Several smaller assets may become commercially more attractive when consolidated and developed alongside shared infrastructure, technical expertise and capital.

"The question therefore changes from 'What is this mineral asset worth today?' to 'What can this asset become as part of a larger value chain?'" Bassey said.

A lithium deposit, for example, should not automatically be viewed only as an opportunity to export unprocessed ore. Depending on resource quality, infrastructure, power economics, capital requirements and market conditions, there may be opportunities to move progressively into concentrates, refined materials or downstream applications. Gold can support refining and associated financial and jewellery ecosystems. Tin and tantalum can potentially support higher-value processing. Iron ore can form part of a broader industrial and steel-development strategy. Lithium and other critical minerals can potentially connect Nigeria to emerging battery, energy-storage and technology supply chains.

"The objective, however, should not be to force every mineral into a complete domestic value chain regardless of economics," Bassey cautioned. "The more practical question is: Which parts of each value chain can Nigeria competitively capture, and what combination of M&A, partnerships and new investment can make that possible?"

Building Mineral Platforms

Bassey said Nigeria can potentially build mineral platforms that bring together complementary assets, processing capabilities, infrastructure, technical expertise, logistics and access to customers. Such platforms can create scale, improve capital efficiency and potentially make projects more attractive to institutional and strategic investors.

For investors evaluating a Nigerian mining asset, the relevant questions should extend beyond the size of the deposit: Is the asset commercially viable on a standalone basis? Can it become part of a larger platform? Are nearby assets capable of being consolidated? Can processing materially improve the economics? Can infrastructure be shared across multiple operations? Is there a viable domestic or regional market? Can strategic partnerships provide technology, capital or technical expertise? Can the combined platform generate sufficient returns to justify the investment?

"The objective is not necessarily to create the largest mining company possible," Bassey said. "It is to create commercially viable combinations of assets and capabilities that capture more value from the resources already available."

Lessons from Ghana

Bassey pointed to Ghana as a useful regional reference point. In 2024, mineral production contributed an estimated 9.5 per cent of Ghana's GDP, while mineral export earnings increased by 52.7 per cent to approximately $11.9 billion. Gold accounted for $11.6 billion of those mineral export earnings.

Ghana has also been seeking to deepen domestic value addition. In August 2024, the country inaugurated the Royal Ghana Gold Refinery in Accra, its first commercial gold refinery, with an initial processing capacity of approximately 400 kilograms per day.

"The broader lesson for Nigeria is not simply that more minerals should be processed domestically," Bassey said. "It is that mineral development can support an ecosystem extending beyond extraction into refining, logistics, finance, services, manufacturing and export markets."

Policy and Commercial Discipline

Bassey acknowledged that government policy will remain important. Investors require predictable regulation, transparent licensing processes, reliable geological data, infrastructure, security and an operating environment in which capital can be deployed with reasonable confidence.

Geological data are particularly important. Without credible information about the size, quality and characteristics of deposits, investors face greater geological and financial uncertainty. The Federal Government has identified improved geological data as an important part of attracting investment into the sector.

"But policy alone cannot create commercially sustainable mining businesses," Bassey said. "Beneficiation must make economic sense."

Processing and manufacturing require reliable power, infrastructure, appropriate technology, sufficient feedstock, technical expertise, capital and markets. Where those conditions are absent, simply requiring local processing may not produce sustainable industrial development.

"The objective should therefore be commercially viable beneficiation, not beneficiation for its own sake," he said.

From Mineral Wealth to Nigerian Value

Bassey said Nigeria's mineral opportunity ultimately extends beyond mining itself. If developed effectively, mineral investment can support processing industries, logistics networks, industrial infrastructure, technical services and manufacturing ecosystems. It can create opportunities for domestic companies while attracting international capital, technology and expertise. It can also strengthen Nigeria's position within regional African supply chains, particularly given the scale of its domestic market and its potential role as a commercial and industrial hub for West Africa.

The strategic pathway can be viewed as: Mineral assets → Consolidation → Processing → Infrastructure → Manufacturing → Domestic and regional markets.

"M&A can provide an important mechanism for connecting these stages," Bassey said. "The transaction itself should not be the endpoint. An acquisition should be evaluated according to what it enables the combined business to build."

"For Nigeria, the opportunity is not simply to extract more minerals. It is to create more economic value from the minerals it already possesses. The more important question, therefore, is not simply how much mineral wealth lies beneath Nigeria's soil. It is how much economic value Nigeria can build around that wealth."